RIOT · Riot Platforms, Inc.
The AI's read
Riot signed a $9.1 billion, 20-year AI colocation agreement that Bernstein models as generating about $457M ARR and $365M–$411M annual NOI, shifting Riot's story from pure Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure. That changes the revenue mix and valuation runway materially for a company that has been selling BTC to fund expansion. The market hasn't fully re-rated the name yet. Price is $19.48 and RSI 60.5, with only a +0.4% move since the note, so the upside Bernstein voices looks not fully priced. We lean bullish because the deal creates clear recurring revenue and a large upside gap to Bernstein's $35 target, but execution, large remaining financing needs (~$3.7B), and Texas concentration are real risks. Position size should reflect those execution and financing hazards.