MSTR · Strategy Inc.
The AI's read
MSCI opened a consultation that could exclude Strategy Inc. and Metaplanet from its global indexes after applying a two-step asset and financial-ratio screen. When MSCI ran the test on May 2026 data, Strategy failed the screen. The market barely moved, with MSTR only down 0.03% since the news and RSI 49.24, so investors have not panicked. Existing index members must fail the screens in two consecutive annual reviews before removal, so deletion is not immediate. We lean bearish because simulated failure means a credible pathway to index exclusion and mechanical outflows. Conviction 90% given the explicit test failure, but timing uncertainty and the bullish market regime argue for sizing caution.