SPDR Gold Shares has strong ETF inflows but also a strategist warning of a drop to $3,000; the positives and negatives balance.
GLD shows two clear facts: big ETF inflows and a prominent strategist warning of a deep pullback. The inflows argue for continued demand. The strategist and higher Treasury yields argue for weaker interest in non-yielding gold. Because both facts are prominent and pull in opposite directions, I treat the report as leaving GLD balanced.
The iShares Silver Trust faces the same pressure as gold because a 10-year Treasury near 5% boosts bond returns and competes with non-yielding silver.
The gold miners ETF is tightly tied to metals and stocks, and the strategist said metals are acting like 'stock puppets', raising pullback risk.
Junior miners are highly sensitive to gold moves and to equities; the strategist noted gold’s correlation with the S&P 500 was near historic highs.
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